Protecting alpine biodiversity in the Middle East from climate change: Implications for high-elevation birds

Abstract

Aims

The Middle East, located in the arid belt of the Earth, is home to a diverse range of biodiversity, with its mountain ecosystems being the most important centres of species diversity and endemism. In this study, the impact of climate change on alpine bird species in the Middle East was assessed across five mountain systems: Alborz–Kopet-Dagh, Caucasus–Pontic, Levant–Taurus, Sarawat–Hijaz and Zagros–Central Iran.

Location

Middle East.

Methods

Using species distribution models (SDMs), 38 native alpine bird species were analysed under different climate change scenarios. We also identified future multispecies in situ and ex situ climate refugia and assessed the efficiency of the current protected areas (PAs) system in protecting them.

Results

The results indicated that, on average, habitat suitability for these species is projected to decline by 36.83% (2050, SSP2-4.5) to 60.10% (2070, SSP5-8.5) with an upward range shift. Based on stacking range change of the species, Levant–Taurus, Zagros–Central Iran and Alborz–Kopet–Dagh mountain ranges will experience the highest amount of habitat loss, respectively, with Caucasus–Pontic being least affected. The gap analysis showed that the existing PAs system covers only 13% and 10% of the in situ and ex situ climatic refugia, respectively.

Conclusions

Our findings underscore the significance of mountainous regions in the Middle East for the persistence of alpine bird species and the urgent need to prioritize climate refugia in transboundary and participatory conservation plans. It is crucial to prevent habitat degradation and alteration resulting from human activities in these areas to ensure the persistence of alpine species and their habitats.

Link to Article 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.13826?af=R

by Farzin Shabani

Habitat in flames: How climate change will affect fire risk across koala forests

Aim:
Generate fire susceptibility maps for the present and 2070, to identify the threat wildfires pose to koalas now and under future climate change.
Location:
Australia.
Time period:
Present and 2070.
Major taxa studied:
60 main tree species browsed by koalas.
Method:
The Decision Tree machine learning algorithm was applied to generate a fire susceptibility index (a measure of the potential for a given area or region to experience wildfires) using a dataset of conditioning factors, namely: altitude, aspect, rainfall, distance from rivers, distance from roads, forest type, geology, koala presence and future dietary sources, land use-land cover (LULC), normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), slope, soil, temperature, and wind speed.
Results:
We found a general increase in susceptibility of Australian vegetation to bushfires overall. The simulation for current conditions indicated that 39.56% of total koala habitat has a fire susceptibility rating of ‘‘very high’’ or ‘‘high’’, increasing to 44.61%by 2070.
Main conclusions:
Wildfires will increasingly impact koala populations in the future. If this iconic and vulnerable marsupial is to be protected, conservation strategies need to be adapted to deal with this threat. It is crucial to strike a balance between ensuring that be adapted to deal with this threat. It is crucial to strike a balance between ensuring that koala habitats and populations are not completely destroyed by fire while also allowing for forest rejuvenation and regeneration through periodic burns
Link to Article
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373126728_Habitat_in_flames_How_climate_change_will_affect_fire_risk_across_koala_forests

by Farzin Shabani